The political press is currently hyper-fixated on J.D. Vance’s recent jaunt to Iowa with Congressman Randy Feenstra. The narrative is as predictable as it is exhausting: Vance is "planting seeds," "building infrastructure," and "testing the waters" for a 2028 run. It’s the same boilerplate copy we’ve seen for every ambitious politician who lands a plane in Des Moines.
They’re all wrong.
The idea that performing the "Full Grassley" or cozying up to local GOP power brokers in 2024 matters for a 2028 primary is a delusion born of a bygone era. We are witnessing the death of the retail politics model, yet the establishment continues to act as if a handshake at a fundraiser in Sioux Center carries the same weight it did in 1996. It doesn’t.
The Iowa Caucus Is a Ghost of Its Former Self
Let’s start with the hard truth about the Iowa Caucuses. The Democrats have already gutted their version of the event, and while the GOP holds onto it like a security blanket, its predictive power has evaporated. In a world of fragmented media and nationalized politics, the "Iowa bounce" is a myth.
Think about the sheer amount of capital—financial and social—spent on winning Iowa over the last two decades. Mike Huckabee won it. Rick Santorum won it. Ted Cruz won it. None of them became the nominee. Iowa doesn’t pick winners; it picks the most aggressive panderer of the month.
When a figure like Vance shows up to "woo" voters four years ahead of schedule, he isn’t building a base. He is participating in a hollow ritual. The voters he meets today will have cycled through three different ideological cycles by the time 2028 actually rolls around. In the modern attention economy, four years is an eternity. Showing up early isn’t "preparedness." It’s a confession that you don't have a national platform strong enough to command attention without begging for it in a high school gymnasium.
The Retail Politics Trap
The consensus view suggests that these early visits are about "earning" the respect of the local party faithful. This is the "lazy consensus" of the consultant class. These consultants get paid to organize these trips, so of course, they tell you they are vital.
I have seen campaigns burn through tens of millions of dollars trying to "win" the ground game in early states, only to be wiped out by a single viral clip or a dominant performance on a national podcast. In the age of digital dominance, the "ground game" is largely a jobs program for activists.
Data shows that voters are increasingly influenced by national-level cultural signals rather than local endorsements. Congressman Feenstra’s support might help you navigate a specific county GOP meeting, but it does nothing to protect you when the national discourse shifts.
The smarter move—the move no one in the press wants to admit—is that Iowa is now a distraction. The candidates who actually win are those who dominate the digital ecosystem. They don't need a local congressman to introduce them because they are already in the voter's pocket, on their phone, every single day.
The Vice Presidential Ceiling
There is a specific brand of political amnesia regarding Vice Presidents and their path to the Oval Office. History is littered with the corpses of "heirs apparent" who thought their time in the second seat guaranteed them a smooth ride.
The conventional wisdom says Vance is using his current visibility to bridge the gap between the MAGA base and the institutional GOP. The reality? He is being boxed in. Every day he spends acting as a surrogate or "wooing" specific regional factions is a day he isn't defining himself outside of the shadow of the top of the ticket.
Imagine a scenario where the 2028 primary field isn't about who paid their dues in Iowa, but about who can most effectively pivot to the post-Trump era. By the time 2028 arrives, the electorate will be younger, more cynical, and even less interested in traditional campaign stops. Vance’s current strategy is a 20th-century solution to a 21st-century problem.
Stop Treating Endorsements Like Currency
We need to talk about the Congressman Randy Feenstra factor. The press treats a joint appearance with a local incumbent as a "win" for the visiting candidate. This is a misunderstanding of how political power actually flows in 2024.
Endorsements are lagging indicators, not leading ones. A congressman endorses a candidate because they think that candidate is already winning, or because they want a favor down the road. They do not move blocks of voters. In fact, in many cases, the "establishment" stamp of approval from a sitting representative can be a net negative with the very insurgent voters Vance needs to keep on his side.
The "insider" game is a circular firing squad. You spend all your time trying to please the 500 people who run the state party, and in the process, you become indistinguishable from the very bureaucrats the base claims to hate.
The High Cost of Early Exposure
There is such a thing as being "overexposed" too early. By starting the 2028 conversation now, Vance and his team are giving their opponents four years of film to study. They are providing four years of "Iowa-specific" promises that will be used against them in a general election.
Every time a candidate tries to "woo" a specific demographic in Iowa, they are usually alienating someone else in a swing state like Pennsylvania or Arizona. The "nuance" the media misses is that these early campaign stops aren't just building a brand—they are creating a paper trail of pandering.
The 2028 Reality Check
The next primary won't be fought in diners. It will be fought in the comments sections, on X, through decentralized media networks, and in the "vibes" of a nation that is increasingly decoupled from geographic loyalty.
If you want to know who the 2028 frontrunner is, don't look at who is eating deep-fried butter at the Iowa State Fair. Look at who is successfully bypassing the traditional gatekeepers. Look at who is making the mainstream media irrelevant by building their own distribution channels.
Vance is a sharp guy. He knows how the game is played. But by playing the "Iowa game," he is signaling that he still believes the old rules apply. He is betting that the gatekeepers still have keys. They don't. The locks have been changed, and the doors have been kicked down.
The Actionable Truth for Political Strategy
If you are advising a candidate for 2028, the last place you should send them is Iowa.
- Build a Media Conglomerate, Not a Campaign: Your "infrastructure" should be a studio and a mailing list, not a series of field offices.
- Ignore the Local Notables: Their power is an illusion maintained by the press. Seek out the cultural influencers who actually move the needle.
- Product over Process: Voters want results and clear ideological stances. They don't care how many counties you’ve visited.
The media loves the Vance-in-Iowa story because it fits into a comfortable, easy-to-write template. It allows them to pretend that politics is still a predictable, orderly process where "hard work" in the early states leads to victory. It’s a comforting lie.
The reality is much more chaotic and much less focused on Iowa. The candidates who realize this first will be the ones left standing. The ones who spend the next four years chasing the approval of local GOP chairmen are just practicing for a concession speech they don't know they're giving yet.
Stop looking at the podium in Iowa. Start looking at the screen in your hand. That’s where the 2028 election is being won, and right now, the traditional campaign stop is nothing more than a high-priced photo op for a dying system.
If the goal is to "woo" voters, do it where they actually live: online, in their grievances, and far away from the curated stages of the Iowa GOP. Anything else is just political theater for an audience that has already left the building.
The era of the Iowa Kingmaker is over. Anyone still acting like it matters is either selling you something or hasn't checked the polls in a decade.
